Overview:
China: Fragile Superpower recounts the history of China in relation to the country it is today. It explores the thought and reasoning behind the American fear of China the superpower and the Chinese leaders view of an extremely fragile country on the rise. It provides an in-depth discussion of how Chinese domestic issues could spin out of control and put the country at war with itself and potentially America and Japan. The book was written by Susan Shirk. She is the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton Administration and is a critically acclaimed expert on Chinese politics. The book was published by the Oxford University Press and was copyrighted in 2007. The book sells for $16.95 and is listed under the ISBN 978-0-19-537319-6.
“Are China and America doomed to become enemies in the twenty-first century? Inevitably, as China moves up the economic and technological ladder, it will compete with America and expand its global reach. But a much graver danger is that as China rises in power, the United States will misread and mishandle it, so that we find ourselves embroiled in a hostile relationship with it” (pg. 4). The purpose of Shirk’s book is to educate the public, primarily Americans, about how various internal and external factors influence China’s actions, both domestically and internationally. Her main goals are to establish just how fragile China’s leadership actually is, as well as explain why Americans have a somewhat irrational fear of China’s rise. Shirk has chosen a logical way of arranging the book. The reader is able to grasp the domestic threats and impact of the media on the Chinese public, before reading about the sensitive subjects of Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. Shirk successful writes in a fluid educational manner. She is also very capable of discussing China’s history vividly, as seen through her various descriptions of the 1930’s Japanese invasion and the Nanjing massacre (pg. 154-155).
Perhaps Shirk’s greatest achievement lay within her simplification of how to maintain the domestic stability of China. She clearly states that the ‘formula’ is to avoid public leadership splits, prevent large-scale social unrest, and keep the military on the side of the party (pg.39). By focusing on the view of the Chinese leaders, readers are able to clearly get a mindset of how the public is perceived. For example, Shirk mentions that, “Paranoia is the occupational disease of all authoritarian leaders no matter how serious the internal threats they actually face” (pg. 53). She explains that the leaders must prevent social unrest to prevent the democratic movements that have engulfed Indonesia and Taiwan. Shirk also raises an interesting point that in order to maintain social stability, it is in their best interest to maintain the economic boom. The more Chinese out of work, the more likely they are to head to the barricades.
“It is China’s internal fragility, not its growing strength that presents the greatest danger. The weak legitimacy of the Communist Party and its leaders’ sense of vulnerability could cause China to behave rashly in a crisis involving Japan or Taiwan, and bring it into a military conflict with the United States” (pg. 255). In order to make this book as interesting and relevant to Americans as possible, she does an exceptional job of continually discussing the impact each point has on the United States.
The Relevance of China: Fragile Superpower
“Maintaining a proactive and constructive posture, China will enter the twenty-first century with the image of a responsible big power. With the passing of time, the so-called ‘China threat theory’ will be defeated automatically” (pg. 107). In order to maintain this mantra, Shirk has created a simple and understandable list. China must accommodate its neighbors, be a team player in multilateral organizations, and use its economic ties to make friends. Shirk provides multiple examples of land and policy disputes, such as the Chinese bullying of the South China Sea and their move to claim the Paracel Islands in the mid 90s, that are effectively diminishing China’s reputation. Shirk discusses the natural distrust that such countries as India have towards China. These disputes effectively push these countries to, “… join together… with the United States to try and contain [China]” (pg. 111). Shirk impresses upon readers the importance of joining multilateral organizations. By joining such groups as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Neighbors), China can insure that its politics are not on the table for discussion, but can simultaneously foster trust by engaging in dialogue regarding regional cooperation. In addition, China is able to show the world that they are willing to cooperate by joining such groups as Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Shirk truly emphasizes just how important China’s relationship with America ultimately is.
The external factors discussed are largely centered on three main countries that are all intertwined: Taiwan, Japan, and the United States. Shirk illustrates the true relevance of the book in Chapter 8, The United States, as she discusses how every move that China and the United States make have ramifications on how they respond to each other. For example, the United States’ accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was extensively discussed. The Chinese public refused to believe that an accidental bombing was possible with the all of the advanced technology present in the United States. The Chinese leadership feared being considered soft on America and American hatred flared. As set forth in the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States will preserve Taiwan’s independence, but if China makes a move to modify the current state, they will find themselves at war with the United States and Japan. Furthermore, the Chinese believe that, “The U.S. is a superpower, so China doesn’t want to offend it. But most Chinese view Japan as a second-rate power whose economy depends on China’s growth” (pg. 145). Shirk is effective in discussing how the United States is heavily affected by what occurs in Eastern Asia. One of the interesting ideas Shirk posed was that the Chinese believe, “… that the United States engaged with China in order to restrain it domestically and internationally” (pg. 232).
Where Shirk Excels
Shirk is able to effectively convey the fragileness of Chinese leadership. She proves the point that China does have severe internal problems, and that it is not the threat Americans envision. China is a country in danger of leadership schisms that could put the entire communist regime in a fight for survival. Public protests and the influence of the internet put the country at risk of imploding. Shirk mentions that, “Taiwan is a question of regime survival—no regime could survive the loss of Taiwan” (pg. 182). Americans in particular need to become more knowledgeable about the true difficulties in China’s path to becoming a superpower. Shirk does an amazing job of showing the vulnerability of the Chinese communist regime.
Shirk clearly understands the importance of history to the Chinese people. “People in China see every Japanese act through the lens of history and fail to recognize the impact of China’s own actions on Japan” (pg. 146). The inability of China to let issues in history remain that way is prohibiting its peaceful rise. Two chapters of Shirk’s book focus specifically on China’s relations with Japan and Taiwan. The sheer animosity that fuels the relationship between China and these countries is somewhat foreign to Americans. Taiwan’s independence, or its remaining status-quo, is a key factor to sustaining peace in Asia. Shirk does an exceptional job at explaining how public opinion drives how China responds to issues with each country. China feels a sense of entitlement to Taiwan, after it was usurped following WWII. China wants to have ‘One China’ and Taiwan is part of it. Understanding that if China were to regain Taiwan, it would end the ‘Century of Humiliation’ for China is crucial to understanding its foreign policy. As for Japan, China refuses to forget the devastation caused by the Sino-Japanese War. The Nanjing Massacre and the persistence of Japanese leaders to visit the Yasukuni Shrine are issues which fuel today’s China. Shirk does an exemplary job of explaining China’s actions in historical terms.
The severe media censoring measures taken by the Chinese leaders is an area of intrigue for Americans. This book discusses the media in terms of history first, that “… mass media’s sole purpose was to serve as loudspeakers to mobilize public support for party policies” (pg. 81). It has since evolved into a governmental tool to sway public opinions. Shirk is effective in discussing how the internet is becoming more accessible and harder to manage. She mentions that China is quickly becoming home to the world’s largest number of internet users. Understanding the changing role of the web in China helps the reader to understand the change in opinion leadership. Shirk expertly discussed what she called the “commitment trap” (pg. 95). People in China care most about national security and U.S.-China relationships. Fearing looking pitiful in response to American actions, China will bad mouth America in the press to appease its people. This brings about a large risk that if China proposes a rash decision against America, it’s people will expect China to act on it. Shirk does mention that, “Party leaders have been using their control over the media to protect the country’s crucially important relationship with the United States from negative public opinion” (pg. 99). A lapse in this relationship management could have severe consequences.
Where Shirk Falls Short
In order to understand the final chapters of China: Fragile Superpower, it was important for Shirk to provide an in-depth retelling of history. She provided a substantial amount of background information to understand just how long-standing China’s grudges and international issues with other countries go. Though such occurrences in history, such as when Japanese leaders visit the Yasukuni Shrine where Japanese war criminals are buried, are extremely important in how the Chinese view the Japanese, they are discussed far too often. I felt as though there were numerous historical altercations that were mentioned repeatedly, but didn’t serve to further the reader’s understanding of events or perspectives. Its repeated mentions of the Yasuknuni Shrine and the Nanjing massacre served to make the book seem more like a history book than an informative thought-provoking novel.
Though I enjoyed Shirks writing style, I found it hard to find her voice within the text. Given that Shirk is an authoritative expert on the matter, I would have preferred reading more about her opinions on certain points. For example, I found it intriguing to hear her opinion on the thought that China needs to change its citizens’ opinions of Taiwan, that they have fostered too strong of views on the subject. Shirk then interjects by saying that, “… it is hard to imagine China’s leaders feeling secure enough to try to persuade people that the Taiwan issue isn’t as important as they once thought it was” (pg. 211). Shirk had provided much evidence that by changing the Chinese public’s extremist views on Taiwan could solve problems, but it was refreshing to hear her voice on the actual plausibility of this occurring. An example of when it would have been insightful to hear her opinion was related to Japan’s global ranking. She closes the Japan chapter by citing a quote from a young finance Ph.D. Though I found his opinion stimulating that Chinese-Japanese relations will improve once China is considered number one globally, it’s my opinion that Shirk could provide a more educated and knowledge opinion. She is a foremost authority on the subject of China foreign relations and I would have appreciated more of her thoughts.
I found that throughout the book, Shirk would often pose statements that were immediately contradicting others. For example, she discusses Chinese hegemonism in that there is a long-standing Chinese belief that America wants to keep emerging powers down, particularly China. This point is continually discussed and referenced in her history as a reason why China has always been so mistrustful of the United States. She later goes on to reference that “… in 1996, the general Chinese public was very friendly toward the U.S. and admired Americans in almost every way” (pg. 230). Another example of how Shirk contradicts her own statements was in the chapter, The Echo Chamber of Nationalism. Throughout the chapter, Shirk discussed how party leaders control media and the internet. “Senior officials themselves also increasingly go online to sample public opinion… Cyberspace has, to some extent, gradually evolved into a valuable place to gauge public opinion” (pg.100). These statements immediately contradict another statement of hers only a few pages later, “Party oligarchs agree that online venting is relatively harmless” (pg. 103). Comments such as these are confusing to the reader. It appeared to me that the media has a dramatic impact on the party leaders. The book referenced an account of a massive protest that was spread solely through the internet. Clearly there is a very real worry about the media in the eyes of the leaders.
Conclusion and Recommendation
China: Fragile Superpower gives readers a transparent look into how the Chinese leadership operates. The fragility of the Chinese leadership is exposed and the reader gains insight into whether or not to fear China as a superpower. For anyone who is looking to gain in-depth knowledge on what factors drive Chinese politics, I would highly recommend this book. In reading this book you gain insight into historical occurrences that the Chinese have refused to let die. In addition, reading this book has furthered my interest in Japan and Taiwan. It would be compelling to read other books on the same subject matter, but from the perspective of Japan and Taiwan. This book has truly expressed just how fragile China and its relationship with the United States remains. Perhaps China, with its incredible economic development, should be allowed to join the G8 and create the G9. In closing, I agree with Shirk as to how China must rise. “The best way for China to rise peacefully is to behave like a responsible power and accommodate to the current superpower, the United States” (pg. 219).
