Saturday, March 12, 2011

Book Review- China: Fragile Superpower

Overview:

China: Fragile Superpower recounts the history of China in relation to the country it is today. It explores the thought and reasoning behind the American fear of China the superpower and the Chinese leaders view of an extremely fragile country on the rise. It provides an in-depth discussion of how Chinese domestic issues could spin out of control and put the country at war with itself and potentially America and Japan. The book was written by Susan Shirk. She is the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton Administration and is a critically acclaimed expert on Chinese politics. The book was published by the Oxford University Press and was copyrighted in 2007. The book sells for $16.95 and is listed under the ISBN 978-0-19-537319-6.

“Are China and America doomed to become enemies in the twenty-first century? Inevitably, as China moves up the economic and technological ladder, it will compete with America and expand its global reach. But a much graver danger is that as China rises in power, the United States will misread and mishandle it, so that we find ourselves embroiled in a hostile relationship with it” (pg. 4). The purpose of Shirk’s book is to educate the public, primarily Americans, about how various internal and external factors influence China’s actions, both domestically and internationally. Her main goals are to establish just how fragile China’s leadership actually is, as well as explain why Americans have a somewhat irrational fear of China’s rise. Shirk has chosen a logical way of arranging the book. The reader is able to grasp the domestic threats and impact of the media on the Chinese public, before reading about the sensitive subjects of Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. Shirk successful writes in a fluid educational manner. She is also very capable of discussing China’s history vividly, as seen through her various descriptions of the 1930’s Japanese invasion and the Nanjing massacre (pg. 154-155).

Perhaps Shirk’s greatest achievement lay within her simplification of how to maintain the domestic stability of China. She clearly states that the ‘formula’ is to avoid public leadership splits, prevent large-scale social unrest, and keep the military on the side of the party (pg.39). By focusing on the view of the Chinese leaders, readers are able to clearly get a mindset of how the public is perceived. For example, Shirk mentions that, “Paranoia is the occupational disease of all authoritarian leaders no matter how serious the internal threats they actually face” (pg. 53). She explains that the leaders must prevent social unrest to prevent the democratic movements that have engulfed Indonesia and Taiwan. Shirk also raises an interesting point that in order to maintain social stability, it is in their best interest to maintain the economic boom. The more Chinese out of work, the more likely they are to head to the barricades.

“It is China’s internal fragility, not its growing strength that presents the greatest danger. The weak legitimacy of the Communist Party and its leaders’ sense of vulnerability could cause China to behave rashly in a crisis involving Japan or Taiwan, and bring it into a military conflict with the United States” (pg. 255). In order to make this book as interesting and relevant to Americans as possible, she does an exceptional job of continually discussing the impact each point has on the United States.

The Relevance of China: Fragile Superpower

“Maintaining a proactive and constructive posture, China will enter the twenty-first century with the image of a responsible big power. With the passing of time, the so-called ‘China threat theory’ will be defeated automatically” (pg. 107). In order to maintain this mantra, Shirk has created a simple and understandable list. China must accommodate its neighbors, be a team player in multilateral organizations, and use its economic ties to make friends. Shirk provides multiple examples of land and policy disputes, such as the Chinese bullying of the South China Sea and their move to claim the Paracel Islands in the mid 90s, that are effectively diminishing China’s reputation. Shirk discusses the natural distrust that such countries as India have towards China. These disputes effectively push these countries to, “… join together… with the United States to try and contain [China]” (pg. 111). Shirk impresses upon readers the importance of joining multilateral organizations. By joining such groups as ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Neighbors), China can insure that its politics are not on the table for discussion, but can simultaneously foster trust by engaging in dialogue regarding regional cooperation. In addition, China is able to show the world that they are willing to cooperate by joining such groups as Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Shirk truly emphasizes just how important China’s relationship with America ultimately is.

The external factors discussed are largely centered on three main countries that are all intertwined: Taiwan, Japan, and the United States. Shirk illustrates the true relevance of the book in Chapter 8, The United States, as she discusses how every move that China and the United States make have ramifications on how they respond to each other. For example, the United States’ accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was extensively discussed. The Chinese public refused to believe that an accidental bombing was possible with the all of the advanced technology present in the United States. The Chinese leadership feared being considered soft on America and American hatred flared. As set forth in the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States will preserve Taiwan’s independence, but if China makes a move to modify the current state, they will find themselves at war with the United States and Japan. Furthermore, the Chinese believe that, “The U.S. is a superpower, so China doesn’t want to offend it. But most Chinese view Japan as a second-rate power whose economy depends on China’s growth” (pg. 145). Shirk is effective in discussing how the United States is heavily affected by what occurs in Eastern Asia. One of the interesting ideas Shirk posed was that the Chinese believe, “… that the United States engaged with China in order to restrain it domestically and internationally” (pg. 232).

Where Shirk Excels

Shirk is able to effectively convey the fragileness of Chinese leadership. She proves the point that China does have severe internal problems, and that it is not the threat Americans envision. China is a country in danger of leadership schisms that could put the entire communist regime in a fight for survival. Public protests and the influence of the internet put the country at risk of imploding. Shirk mentions that, “Taiwan is a question of regime survival—no regime could survive the loss of Taiwan” (pg. 182). Americans in particular need to become more knowledgeable about the true difficulties in China’s path to becoming a superpower. Shirk does an amazing job of showing the vulnerability of the Chinese communist regime.

Shirk clearly understands the importance of history to the Chinese people. “People in China see every Japanese act through the lens of history and fail to recognize the impact of China’s own actions on Japan” (pg. 146). The inability of China to let issues in history remain that way is prohibiting its peaceful rise. Two chapters of Shirk’s book focus specifically on China’s relations with Japan and Taiwan. The sheer animosity that fuels the relationship between China and these countries is somewhat foreign to Americans. Taiwan’s independence, or its remaining status-quo, is a key factor to sustaining peace in Asia. Shirk does an exceptional job at explaining how public opinion drives how China responds to issues with each country. China feels a sense of entitlement to Taiwan, after it was usurped following WWII. China wants to have ‘One China’ and Taiwan is part of it. Understanding that if China were to regain Taiwan, it would end the ‘Century of Humiliation’ for China is crucial to understanding its foreign policy. As for Japan, China refuses to forget the devastation caused by the Sino-Japanese War. The Nanjing Massacre and the persistence of Japanese leaders to visit the Yasukuni Shrine are issues which fuel today’s China. Shirk does an exemplary job of explaining China’s actions in historical terms.

The severe media censoring measures taken by the Chinese leaders is an area of intrigue for Americans. This book discusses the media in terms of history first, that “… mass media’s sole purpose was to serve as loudspeakers to mobilize public support for party policies” (pg. 81). It has since evolved into a governmental tool to sway public opinions. Shirk is effective in discussing how the internet is becoming more accessible and harder to manage. She mentions that China is quickly becoming home to the world’s largest number of internet users. Understanding the changing role of the web in China helps the reader to understand the change in opinion leadership. Shirk expertly discussed what she called the “commitment trap” (pg. 95). People in China care most about national security and U.S.-China relationships. Fearing looking pitiful in response to American actions, China will bad mouth America in the press to appease its people. This brings about a large risk that if China proposes a rash decision against America, it’s people will expect China to act on it. Shirk does mention that, “Party leaders have been using their control over the media to protect the country’s crucially important relationship with the United States from negative public opinion” (pg. 99). A lapse in this relationship management could have severe consequences.

Where Shirk Falls Short

In order to understand the final chapters of China: Fragile Superpower, it was important for Shirk to provide an in-depth retelling of history. She provided a substantial amount of background information to understand just how long-standing China’s grudges and international issues with other countries go. Though such occurrences in history, such as when Japanese leaders visit the Yasukuni Shrine where Japanese war criminals are buried, are extremely important in how the Chinese view the Japanese, they are discussed far too often. I felt as though there were numerous historical altercations that were mentioned repeatedly, but didn’t serve to further the reader’s understanding of events or perspectives. Its repeated mentions of the Yasuknuni Shrine and the Nanjing massacre served to make the book seem more like a history book than an informative thought-provoking novel.

Though I enjoyed Shirks writing style, I found it hard to find her voice within the text. Given that Shirk is an authoritative expert on the matter, I would have preferred reading more about her opinions on certain points. For example, I found it intriguing to hear her opinion on the thought that China needs to change its citizens’ opinions of Taiwan, that they have fostered too strong of views on the subject. Shirk then interjects by saying that, “… it is hard to imagine China’s leaders feeling secure enough to try to persuade people that the Taiwan issue isn’t as important as they once thought it was” (pg. 211). Shirk had provided much evidence that by changing the Chinese public’s extremist views on Taiwan could solve problems, but it was refreshing to hear her voice on the actual plausibility of this occurring. An example of when it would have been insightful to hear her opinion was related to Japan’s global ranking. She closes the Japan chapter by citing a quote from a young finance Ph.D. Though I found his opinion stimulating that Chinese-Japanese relations will improve once China is considered number one globally, it’s my opinion that Shirk could provide a more educated and knowledge opinion. She is a foremost authority on the subject of China foreign relations and I would have appreciated more of her thoughts.

I found that throughout the book, Shirk would often pose statements that were immediately contradicting others. For example, she discusses Chinese hegemonism in that there is a long-standing Chinese belief that America wants to keep emerging powers down, particularly China. This point is continually discussed and referenced in her history as a reason why China has always been so mistrustful of the United States. She later goes on to reference that “… in 1996, the general Chinese public was very friendly toward the U.S. and admired Americans in almost every way” (pg. 230). Another example of how Shirk contradicts her own statements was in the chapter, The Echo Chamber of Nationalism. Throughout the chapter, Shirk discussed how party leaders control media and the internet. “Senior officials themselves also increasingly go online to sample public opinion… Cyberspace has, to some extent, gradually evolved into a valuable place to gauge public opinion” (pg.100). These statements immediately contradict another statement of hers only a few pages later, “Party oligarchs agree that online venting is relatively harmless” (pg. 103). Comments such as these are confusing to the reader. It appeared to me that the media has a dramatic impact on the party leaders. The book referenced an account of a massive protest that was spread solely through the internet. Clearly there is a very real worry about the media in the eyes of the leaders.

Conclusion and Recommendation

China: Fragile Superpower gives readers a transparent look into how the Chinese leadership operates. The fragility of the Chinese leadership is exposed and the reader gains insight into whether or not to fear China as a superpower. For anyone who is looking to gain in-depth knowledge on what factors drive Chinese politics, I would highly recommend this book. In reading this book you gain insight into historical occurrences that the Chinese have refused to let die. In addition, reading this book has furthered my interest in Japan and Taiwan. It would be compelling to read other books on the same subject matter, but from the perspective of Japan and Taiwan. This book has truly expressed just how fragile China and its relationship with the United States remains. Perhaps China, with its incredible economic development, should be allowed to join the G8 and create the G9. In closing, I agree with Shirk as to how China must rise. “The best way for China to rise peacefully is to behave like a responsible power and accommodate to the current superpower, the United States” (pg. 219).

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Book Review- Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China

Overview:

Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China gives readers a topical view of economic conditions in various regions of China. It explores the truths and myths behind the American conception of the growing economy in China. The book was written by James Fallows who lived in China during the 1980s and again from 2006 to 2008. He mentions that China “is simply too big and too contradictory” (pg. xiv) to represent an overall picture of the country. Fallows has compiled 12 articles of his first-hand accounts from his living and traveling in China while working for a newspaper called The Atlantic Monthly. The book was copyrighted in 2009 and published by a Division of Random House, Inc. The book costs $15.00 and is under the ISBN 978-0-307-45624-3.

“What are we thinking in considering China an overall threat? Yes, its factories are formidable, and its weight in the world is huge. But this is still a big, poor, developing nation trying to solve the emergency of the moment” (pg. 142). The purpose of Fallows’ book is to expose the vast array of social and economic conditions in China. Fallows is able to provide a firsthand comparison of the progress China has made. Having twice lived in China, separated by roughly twenty five years, he is able to account for the progress the country has truly made. He wants readers to question the current belief that China is simply the United States’ competitor. This book is intended for a broad audience. He aims to influence the general public’s view of China. This book is particularly useful as an initial introduction to China for anyone preparing to travel there. Rather than giving a reader an in-depth understanding of how China functions, the book simply gets the reader thinking about China in a non-stereotypical manner. Fallows utilizes a conversational tone in his writing. As a writer for the Atlantic Monthly, he is able to successfully write in an objective, informative manner.

The Relevance of Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China:

China and the United States are becoming increasingly more mutually dependant on each other. Fallows discusses how the Chinese government has invested heavily in American currency. If the value of U.S. currency plummeted, the 1.4 trillion dollars that China has invested in U.S. treasury notes would vanish. It is imperative to understand that the success of each economy is important to the other. Fallows states that China is reliant on the U.S. to purchase its goods and the U.S. is reliant on China in order to leverage cheap labor costs. This book is relevant for any company that does any business in China. It gives the reader a more realistic vision of what the Chinese world of manufacturing entails. Fallows states that, “The problem in China is typically the opposite: Foreigners don’t know where to start or whom to deal with in the chaos of small, indistinguishable firms” (pg. 82). This book reveals the fast-paced cluster of companies operating in such places as Shenzhen. It is crucial to understand the basics of China prior to creating an offshore manufacturing operation. Fallows spoke with an Irishman stationed in Shenzhen, named Liam Casey. Casey simply states that, “Supply chain is intellectual property” (pg. 84). This book demonstrates Fallows’ opinion that someone manufacturing in China must be able to leverage relationships in order to be successful.

Fallows also presents China as an economic opportunity for the United States. He discusses how the U.S. can capitalize on the exorbitant amounts of pollution in the city. As mentioned in the book, “The business of improving China’s environment can be a very attractive business indeed” (pg. 208). This book finds relevance in looking to the future prospects of China. The United States will be looking to aid the 750,000 Chinese people who die prematurely due to pollution, while reaping the monetary benefits. As mentioned by Fallows, “Trying to build anything more at the moment – sewage-treatment plants, for a start, which would mean a better life for its own people, or smokestack scrubbers and related clean technology, which would start to address the world pollution for which China is increasingly held responsible” (pg. 157). In the chapter titled China Makes, The World Takes, Fallows states how the demand for cheap goods propagates the low standards of pollution. For example, if the production cost of an Ethernet cable rose from three dollars to four dollars, corporations might look to switch the entire operation to a country like Vietnam. The economic and environmental problems that China faces are our problems as well. Fallows has complied a book that is both relevant to the current operations in China, as well as the prospective opportunities of the future.

Where Fallows Excels:

Fallows’ greatest achievement in his book is his comparison of the different lives the Chinese lead. Fallows presents a China that is completely foreign to that of the traditional American understanding of the country. One of the first experiences discussed is his visit to Broad Town. It is a city constructed around the business tycoon Zhang Yue’s fantasy. The town is the manufacturing center for Zhang’s industrial air conditioner plants. All employees receive free housing and food, as well as moderate pay, by Chinese standards. The employees have no reason to leave their manufactured city. Mixed through the city are Zhang’s extravagant displays of wealth, from his Versailles-like palace, to his scaled replicas of the Great Pyramids. What shocked me most was Fallows’ account of the apparent cleanliness of the factory. He describes how most Chinese factories operate with the motto of, “If it’s worth doing, it’s worth doing sloppily,” (pg. 44) but Broad Town operates on the Japanese paradigm of cleanliness.

Zhang’s utopia is presented as an immediate contradiction of the lives of the residents of Western China. Fallows discusses a trip to the western provinces, where he saw the subsistence economy in which nearly 300 million people are trapped. In the chapter After the Earthquake, Fallows recounts his trip through four rural western villages that were ravaged by earthquakes. He describes it as a desolate area with few luxuries. To further distinguish between the vast differences in the lives of the Chinese people, he discussed how different people recall the most colossal disaster in modern Chinese history. “If they said the Cultural Revolution, it meant they were from the city and viewed losing their careers and being sent to the farms as the ultimate hardship. If they said the Great Famine, it meant they were country people who had seen many of their neighbors starve” (pg. 237). By showing the diversity of the country, it enables readers to be more open to different views of China.

By constantly relating China back to the United States, Fallows is able to give his work more relevance. For example, in the chapter The $1.4 Trillion Question, he compares China’s slower and more balanced growth to the rapid growth of the U.S., which has left us reliant on China’s subsidies (pg. 168). Another example of a similar comparison arose in identifying pollution issues. He exposes a similarity in that both the U.S. and Chinese government “are afraid to make the public pay the true cost of cleaning up the country” (pg. 206). Fallows wants to create a different image of China in the minds of his readers. By providing these comparisons, he is able to create a meaningful text.

A final point that Fallows clearly distinguishes is that China is heavily regulated. Both social and business interactions are highly controlled or monitored. Whether relating to the internet or business regulations and protocol, the government is present. In retelling his experiences in Shenzhen, a reader can grasp the chaos that takes place in outsourcing manufacturing. Fallows effectively sums this up in saying, “Today’s China is a disorienting combination of the very tightly controlled and the seemingly out-of-control” (pg. 235).

Where Fallows Falls Short:

Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China was a quick and interesting read with few flaws. One of the issues I had with Fallows’ writing was his unwillingness to take a stand. Though this may be the nature of The Atlantic Monthly’s publications, I was irritated when he did not chose sides in presenting contradictions. For example, Fallows presents The Great Firewall as a measure instituted by the government to control what its people can view and to screen activity with other countries, but later mentions that it is “ostensibly a way to keep hackers and other rogue elements from harming Chinese internet users” (pg. 171). After finishing reading the chapter The Connection Has Been Reset, I was left with an unsure idea of how The Great Firewall currently operates, both before and after the Olympics. He then states that all “the government cares about is making the quest for information just enough of a nuisance that people generally won’t bother” (pg. 180).

As mentioned previously, the book is a culmination of articles which were written while Fallows was living in China. This led to the inclusion of topics that did not serve to state crucial points. For instance, the third chapter, Win in China, was all about a Chinese game show based on the idea of the American show The Apprentice. The point of the chapter was to express that China had fallen behind in innovation and that they hoped “that the program would encourage more people in China to start their own businesses” (pg. 64). In addition, I found that the chapter Macau’s Big Gamble did not add much to the book. Macau is a gambling haven that has been economically growing by twenty percent a year. The chapter serves to contrast Las Vegas with Macau in how the strategy and regulations differ. Macau is so small in size that it doesn’t represent the diversity of China that I will encounter.

The other problem I had with Fallows was that he did not expand on certain issues that I believe to be more prevalent. He states, “It is conceivable that bad partnerships, stolen intellectual property, dilution of brand name, logistics nightmares, or other difficulties have given many companies a sour view of outsourcing” (pg. 94). These occurrences are major problems that prohibit companies from outsourcing and have led to IP theft. I personally had hoped to gain Fallows’ insight as to the actual weight of these problems, as well as insight from someone like Liam Casey.

The information presented in the book was based on Fallows’ personal accounts of his experiences. I found one inconsistency though that sparked further investigation. Having studied the Japanese concept of Lean Manufacturing, the cleanliness and order of Broad Town seemed to contradict the anti-Japanese sentiment discussed in the first chapter. The Japanese idea of cleanliness is clearly outlined in such books as The Toyota Way, by Jeffrey Liker. Fallows does make this connection, but does not expand on why. In order to gain greater insight into this paradox, I would suggest additional research on the strategies of business in Broad Town.

Conclusion and Recommendation:

Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China is a compelling book to introduce someone to China. I would highly recommend it to a person traveling or doing business in China, in order to give them insight into the country. This book is an excellent introduction to the subject of business in China, but should be supplemented by additional books in order to gain a deeper understanding of the country. Based on my background in medical manufacturing, in which I worked with Vietnamese assemblers, I can attest to the difficulties in language and the cultural barriers. Again, this book serves to introduce the chaos of Chinese outsourcing, but must be witnessed to be fully understood. It has furthered my interest in learning about the intricacies of outsourcing. This final quote gives readers insight as to how Fallows views the Chinese American relationship. “A look at China can help America address its main shortcomings – reckless fiscal and foreign policies, delay in moving away from dependence on oil – and perhaps also suggest ways the nations can work together on challenges, mainly environmental, that threaten them and others” (pg. 142).